Jaylen Waddle’s production has steadily declined since his explosive rookie season, as injuries and a changing offensive structure in Miami have limited his impact. Despite back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns, he enters 2025 with career lows across the board and questions about his consistency in fantasy football.
After the Miami Dolphins signed Tyreek Hill, their offensive structure change led to Waddle becoming a more explosive receiver. He saw his targets (117) fall by 24 from his rookie season (141) while playing one more game. Waddle finished with 29 fewer catches (75), with a new top in receiving yards (1,356) and touchdowns (8). His yards per catch (18.1) aligned with his college career (18.9).
Between the regular season and the playoffs in 2023, Waddle missed three games. He gained 100 yards or more in only three contests (7/121/1, 8/114, and 8/142/1), with two coming vs. the Jets. Waddle reached the 1,000-yard mark for the third consecutive season but set three-year lows in catches (72), receiving yards (1,014), touchdowns (4), and targets (104). He scored fewer than 15.00 fantasy points in nine of his 14 starts.
Similar to Hill, Waddle has seen his yards per catch regress in back-to-back seasons (18.1, 14.1, and 12.8). In addition, his catches over the last three years (75, 72, and 58) were well off his rookie campaign (104), partly due to five missed games over the past two seasons.
Waddle also scored a career-low two touchdowns in 2024. He failed to reach 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats 10 times over his 15 starts. His best three outcomes (5/109, 8/144/1, and 9/99) all came at home.
This draft season, Waddle draws a mid-tier WR3 rating in early high-stakes drafts. His ceiling remains high, making him a value in the fantasy market.
Waddle’s talent and past production make him a worthy mid-round gamble, especially if he can stay healthy and regain his big-play form. While his floor has lowered, he has the ability to deliver league-winning weeks in the right matchups.
