Of course, Zverev is a massive favorite in this match. He’s as high as -833 on the moneyline in some spots, and he has spent less time on the court than Griekspoor in this tournament. That will make it hard on the Dutchman to claim victory No. 3 against Zverev. But I’m not looking at a side or a total in this one. I’m looking at tiebreakers.
You can bet on this match to have at least one tiebreaker at -120, and that’s a play that’s hard to turn down.There has been at least one tiebreaker in the last seven matches that these two have played, and three of their last four matches have featured two.That’s interesting, considering all four of those matches were played in a best-of-three-sets format. But these are two of the best servers that the ATP Tour has to offer. Over the last 52 weeks, Zverev has a hold percentage of 89.1%. In that same span, Griekspoor has a hold percentage of 86.5%. Before arriving in Paris, Griekspoor had the third-highest hold percentage (87.1%) on clay of anybody in the men’s game in 2025.
The beauty of a play like this is that it accounts for Zverev having an edge over Griekspoor when it comes to talent, natural ability and tactical acumen. Griekspoor might be able to force tiebreakers against Zverev, but he’s going to lose them more often than not. Zverev is just a superior player. But that doesn’t matter one bit here.
If these two just take advantage of their service games, this can hit, and statistically speaking, there’s a great chance that happens.
Pick: Over 0.5 Tiebreakers (-120)
