We’re still in the early days of the Ottawa Senators’ offseason, and GM Steve Staios has a handful on his plate. And that’s before next month’s draft and before the NHL free agency period begins on July 1.
According to PuckPedia, the Senators have $16,626,786 in cap space. They began their offseason with slightly over $18 million available, but that’s changed with the recent signings of Nikolas Matinpalo and prospect Lucas Ellinas. It still gives them room to chase a free agent or two of value, but that will depend on how they address contracts for Claude Giroux, Fabian Zetterlund and Tyler Kleven, among other pending free agents.
With the help of AFP Analytics’ contract projections and Sean McIndoe, aka Down Goes Brown, who you know from his Cap Court judgments, let’s examine projected numbers for five notable Sens players and evaluate if these are sound deals for the team to sign.
Order in the (cap) court! (I know this line is cheesy. It’s the offseason. Who cares.)
Claude Giroux
2024-25 stats: 15 goals, 50 points, 81 games played
Previous contract: three years, $6,500,000 average annual value
AFP Analytics projection: two years, $5,172,280 AAV
Comparables (AFP Analytics): Joe Pavelski (one year, $5.5 million in 2022-23; one year, $3.5 million in 2023-24), Justin Williams (two years, $4.5 million), Mikael Backlund (two years, $4.5 million), Nick Foligno (two years, $4.5 million)
McKenzie: If you’re the Senators, do you give Giroux a two-year deal at that price? You know he can still play at a high level. But you also know his numbers have been trending downward. Expecting a 37-year-old’s numbers to rebound isn’t impossible, but it’s not likely. Pavelski’s career-best 81-point season at 37 should be considered an exception to the rule.
I still think the Senators will benefit by having Giroux around. If he’s still a 50-point player, he’s of use on a team that needs goal scoring and point production where they can get it — but not at that projected price tag. I suggested a one-year, $4.25 million deal earlier this month. It gives Giroux an AAV higher than another comparable, David Perron (two years, $4 million AAV), while having him at a competitive rate relative to his peers.
McIndoe: Going multiple years at more than $5 million on a 35-plus player with declining numbers? That’s not the sort of deal I’d want to see my team commit to. But my team isn’t the Senators, and I think there’s a case to be made that Ottawa should be willing to go a bit higher for one of the rare “local kid comes home” stories they’ve had. After he committed to the rebuild three years ago, it would be a shame to see Giroux leave just as it’s starting to pay off. Sign him. And if things go south, you’ve still got a respected veteran who’d probably net a draft pick from a contender down the line.
Fabian Zetterlund came to Ottawa at the trade deadline from the San Jose Sharks. (Marc DesRosiers / Imagn Images)
Fabian Zetterlund
2024-25 stats: two goals, three assists, five points in 20 games played with Ottawa (17 goals, 36 points, 64 GP with San Jose)
Previous contract: two years, $1,450,000 AAV
AFP Analytics projection: three years, $3,915,500 AAV
Comparables: Tyler Bertuzzi (one year, $3.5 million), Sven Baertschi (one year, $3,666,666), Conor Sheary (three years, $3 million), Kasperi Kapanen (two years, $3.2 million)
McKenzie: Zetterlund seemed destined for a restricted free agent contract in California before the trade deadline, showing a sufficient amount of promise as he made his way toward another 20-goal season. The Sharks even wanted to discuss a contract before Zetterlund’s camp countered with terms of their own before opting to wait until the offseason. Then the Sharks moved Zetterlund to Ottawa. He spent his time bouncing around from line to line while still getting slot chances and being physical.
Zetterlund is arbitration-eligible, and I’m inclined to think Zetterlund would like the projected deal as it brings some term and a raise. I can see the Sens living with this term, provided the cap hit is cheaper. A three-year, $3.25 million AAV deal would be much better.
McIndoe: Zetterlund isn’t quite good enough to push this into Shiny New Toy territory, but the danger factor is still evident, even after he looked decent in limited action after arriving from San Jose. Shave a year off the term and I’d be more comfortable with the risk here.
Nick Cousins
2024-25 stats: six goals, 15 points, 50 games played
Previous contract: one year, $800k AAV
AFP Analytics projection: one year, $1,091,005.17 AAV
Comparables: Justin Danforth (one year, $1.1 million), Mattias Janmark (one year, $1 million), Sam Carrick (3 years, $1 million in 2024; 2 years, $850k in 2022), Carter Rowney (one year, $825k)
McKenzie: Cousins was derailed by a knee injury partway through the year but returned in time for the playoffs. He’s a veteran with playoff experience who makes sense as a depth add on most teams. But depending on what roles the Sens may have in store for Perron or even Giroux, Cousins could be expendable. The contract isn’t bad, but I can see the Sens saying thanks, but no thanks.
McIndoe: Cousins is a former Florida Panther and his playing style certainly matches their dirtbag ways, so you could imagine a GM deciding to overpay a bit during the season in hopes it pays off in the playoffs. You can only have a few of those guys, though, so the question is whether Cousins is better than the other options out there. I’m not sure he is.
Adam Gaudette
2024-25 stats: 19 goals, 26 points, 81 games played
Previous contract: one year, $775k AAV
AFP Analytics projection: one year, $1,025,431.25 AAV
Comparables: Victor Olofsson (one year, $1,075,000), Nick Bjugstad (one year, $900k), Michael Carcone (two years, $775k), Danton Heinen (one year, $775k)
McKenzie: Gaudette finally got to show he could be an everyday NHL player with the Senators this past year. He scored goals earlier in the year before settling into a bottom-six plus penalty-kill role for the rest of the year. Gaudette even asked for the PK time.
I like this deal if I’m the Sens. But I don’t know if Gaudette likes it, perhaps feeling his goal-scoring ability and desire to kill penalties could net him more, at least in terms of term. But the Sens wouldn’t be hurt much by keeping Gaudette as their fourth centre at that price. If Gaudette doesn’t pan out, and someone like Stephen Halliday emerges from the minors, you can put Gaudette on waivers.
McIndoe: I’m not interested in this sort of deal … if I’m Gaudette’s agent. From a team perspective, I’d be happy to have a 20-goal upside threat at a relatively rock-bottom cap hit. I’m not sure what a deal with term would look like given the limited sample size, but I’ve seen enough to roll the dice on a cheap, short-term commitment.
Tyler Kleven is a young defenceman who became a mainstay on the third pairing. (Marc DesRosiers / Imagn Images)
Tyler Kleven
2024-25 stats: four goals, 10 points, 79 games played
Previous contract: three years, $916,667 AAV
AFP Analytics projection: two years, $1,085,761.56 AAV
Comparables: Madison Bowey (two years, $1 million), Brian Dumoulin (two years, $800k), Libor Hajek (one year, $874,125), Scott Mayfield (two years, $625k), Colton White (one year, $700k)
McKenzie: Looking at some of these comparisons, Kleven isn’t a journeyman defenceman hoping to strike it rich. He proved himself as an everyday NHL defenceman and even impressed during the playoffs. Is his ceiling that of a top-four defenceman? I need to see more before I stake such a claim.
If the Sens have seen enough to think it’s worth signing Kleven to a long-term, cost-effective deal, I don’t think it’s terrible business, provided the AAV isn’t too high. But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Sens held off and kept him on a shorter-term deal and let him continue to mature as a player. If this is the deal projected for him to sign, you go ahead and enjoy Kleven as your No. 5 defenceman for the next two seasons before reassessing.
McIndoe: This is another one where some term might make more sense. But if the team isn’t comfortable going there yet, this is a more-than-fair price for a 23-year-old who can handle third-pair minutes.
(Top photo of Adam Gaudette and Claude Giroux: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
