Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers prediction, pick for Thursday 6/5/25

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Thursday night’s game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers.

Tampa Bay enters Thursday’s series finale in control, poised to close out a dominant home stand. With a sharp pitching advantage and a lineup that’s firing, they have all the pieces to continue rolling. Texas, on the other hand, is stumbling—losing two straight in this series, and the struggles on the road are undeniable. The Rangers’ bats have been anemic, struggling to put up consistent numbers, while the Rays are finding ways to create pressure, especially against right-handed pitchers. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Rays and the Rangers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Look, the statistics don’t lie: Texas’ 3.37 runs per game on the road is among the worst in the league, while Tampa Bay’s offense has generated 4.36 runs per game. With Jack Leiter on the mound for the Rangers, the stage is set for a pitcher’s duel—one where Ryan Pepiot has the upper hand.

Pepiot’s 3.21 ERA speaks for itself. This season, he’s posted a strong 1.16 WHIP across 70 innings, and more importantly, he’s been in control, walking fewer batters than Leiter. Over his last 13.2 innings, he’s allowed zero earned runs—he’s not just throwing strikes, he’s commanding the zone. Meanwhile, Leiter’s issues with control, highlighted by 23 walks in 46.2 innings, leave him vulnerable, especially with Tampa Bay’s patient approach at the plate. In a game where every pitch matters, Pepiot is simply the steadier arm.

Texas is also hobbled by injuries, with key pieces like Nathan Eovaldi and Josh Sborz sidelined, exposing their bullpen. That’s not a good look against a team like the Rays, who thrive in late innings. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been lights out, boasting a 3.22 ERA, and their pitchers have consistently limited damage late in games. In contrast, the Rangers have struggled to find consistency in relief, which has left them exposed when they need it most. The Rangers’ bullpen has a 3.71 ERA, but that number hides the cracks—especially when their offense isn’t helping with run support.

Rangers vs. Rays pick, best bet

Texas has dropped 11 of their last 15 road games, and they’ve failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games against American League opponents. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 7-1 in their last eight home games and thrives against teams that struggle against right-handed pitching. And that’s what Texas is dealing with right now—an offense that just isn’t clicking. Over their last 10, they’ve posted a pitiful .206 team batting average on the road. In a game that sets up perfectly for the Rays to extend their home dominance, I have little doubt they’ll take this one.

Go Rays -140. With a steady arm in Pepiot, a hot offense, and Texas’s road woes, the Rays are the clear pick here. Add in their recent trends and a bullpen that can close the door late, and it’s clear: Tampa Bay is walking away with this one. Bet confidently.